It’s been a while since I wrote a blog post! In fact it’s been nearly a year. Oops. But I’m back and I’m ready to apply the lessons I learned from my TI8 predictions to do an even better job this time! A few things to note:
1. According to this compilation, I was the best prognosticator last year. So that’s cool =). Please note however, that almost all the correct answers come from the tournament predictions section and the rest are really pretty random.
2. I considered whatever precedents made the most sense for each prediction. So for some you’ll see data from the whole season, sometimes I’ll only use the most recent tournaments. (Special note: for the 5 game minimum hero selections I used 10 games for TI qualifiers because there are so many more games.
3. I did not consider players or teams we have almost no recent information on. For example, I’m almost surely not going to make predictions for Jabz or vtFaded as carry since we have very limited data on their new roles.
4. The Summit, while informative, is not what I would consider representative of the whole Dota meta considering only one TI team was there.
With that said, if you just want to see my predictions click here. If you want to look at the research and reasoning and make your own informed decision keep reading!
Hero predictions
Most picked
Prior results:
- 2018 – VS
- 2017 – Earthshaker
- 2016 – Mirana
- Top Picks at Epicenter (most picked first): Grimstroke, Centaur, Ember, Warlock
- Top Picks in TI qualifiers: Ember, Centaur, WK, Grimstroke
- Top Picks at Summit: Grimstroke, Juggernaut, Dark Willow
TI8 pick: Winter Wyvern
Alternatives: Phoenix, WR, Warlock
Wyvern was top 10 so I guess not a total loss, but VS is such a flexible support and that’s the kind of hero we need to pick.
TI9 pick: Grimstroke
Alternatives: Rubick, CM, Dark Willow, AA, Sand King
Centaur has been nerfed enough I think. Same with Ember. So I’m leaning towards Grimstroke I guess. The problem is not picking an OP hero since they will end up being banned and picking a stable hero.
Most banned
Prior results:
- 2018 – Enchantress
- 2017 – Night Stalker,
- 2016 – Io
- Top Bans at Epicenter (most banned first): Sven, Chen, DS, Bat
- Top Bans in TI qualifiers: Ember, Omni, OD, IO, Chen
- Top Bans at Summit: Enigma, SB, Omni, Chen
TI8 pick: IO
Alternatives: Phoenix, PL, Chen
Okay so Enchantress was an obvious pick after The Summit, but then was hit with a nerf. I way overestimated that nerf’s effect. Oops. Of course IO was the 2nd most banned hero so I guess I didn’t miss by much.
TI9 pick: Chen
Alternatives: Omni, Enigma, IO
Chen’s ability to manipulate lanes is a unique skill that teams hate to face. Also better teams (i.e. teams at Epicenter and TI) are more likely to be able to take advantage of that ability. Omniknight and Enigma are heroes that we just don’t want to deal with. Chen was nerfed recently, but it doesn’t change his ability to alter the early game.
Hero with highest win rate (5 game minimum)
Prior results:
- 2018 – Venomancer
- 2017 – Ogre (wtf?)
- 2016 – Undying/Lone Druid
- Epicenter: Axe, WD, Slark
- TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Dark Willow, Beastmaster, Bane ()
- Summit: Clinkz (6-0), Enigma (7-1), Storm (11-2)
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: Arc Warden, Nyx, Io (over 10 games played)
TI8 picks: Chen
Alternatives: Brood, IO, Huskar.
I mean this has to be like the least predictable category. Brood did end up 4th behind Veno, Drow and Invoker and tied with Arc Warden.
TI9 pick: Arc warden
Alternatives: Brood, Enigma
Who knows? I went with Arc Warden because it feels like a hero that will barely meet the 5 game minimum and therefore has a good chance to hit that high win-rate.
Hero with the highest kill average (5 game minimum)
Prior results:
- 2018 – Timbersaw
- 2017 – PA
- 2016 – PA
- Epicenter: QOP, Alch, CK (Arc Warden beat them all but only 4 games)
- TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): WR, Sniper, Gyro
- Summit: Morph, Storm, OD
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: Morph, Ursa, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)
TI8 pick: Storm
Alternatives: PA, SF, Slark
None of my choices were in the top 10 qualifying heroes so there goes that. Not sure what the lesson here is, but Gyro was the only one from the tournaments that got close.
TI9 pick: OD
Alternatives: Arc Warden, QoP, Gyro
I think OD is up and coming and while OD is a better farming hero than he used to be, he’s still got lots of kill potential. I think Morph has just been nerfed too much.
Hero with highest assist average (5 game minimum)
Prior results:
- 2018 – Tusk
- 2017 – BH
- 2016 – AA
- Epicenter: Nyx, Tusk, Oracle, ET,
- TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): Disrupter, AA, Earthshaker
- Summit: Earth Spirit, Spirit Breaker, Mars
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: Spirit Breaker, AA, IO (over 10 games played)
TI8 pick: Tusk
Alternatives: BH, IO
Got this one. The top 5 were all supports (Tusk, Nyx, VS, Phoenix, Earth Spirit). Also you’ll note that most of them have some sort of AOE to get assists. Might be worth keeping in mind.
TI9 pick: Spirit Breaker
Alternatives: IO, AA, Nyx
Do you think Zeus and or Spectre will be picked enough? If they are, they are good candidates. I don’t think they will be so I’m going to go with Spirit Breaker. The downside of Spirit Breaker is that he will likely get played a lot.
Hero with lowest death average (5 game minimum)
Prior results:
- 2018 – Medusa
- 2017 – Morph
- 2016 – Lone Druid
- Epicenter: Lone Druid, Gyro, WR
- TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Jugg, DK
- Summit: Clinkz, Sven, Slark
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Lycan, Lone Druid (over 10 games played)
TI8 pick: Morphling
Alternatives: Brood, Medusa, Lycan (also 4th at Supermajor)
Morphling averaged 4.3 deaths/game which was shockingly high for that hero imo. Brood, Lycan and Medusa were the top 3 so I was pretty close.
TI9 pick: AM
Alternatives: Naga, Clinkz
I’m going AM. Again I expect to see a fair bit of AM this tournament and I’m just not as convinced by the other heroes. I think Clinkz is a decent option, but TI teams are better at dealing with heroes like Clinkz than the ones at the summit. Naga of course is another split pusher with an escape so she’s a solid option as well.
Hero with highest last hit average (5 game minimum)
Past Results
- 2018 – SF
- 2017 – AM
- 2016 – AM
- Epicenter: Alch, Medusa, Naga (Arc Warden, AM only had 4,3 games but were higher)
- TI qualifiers: Naga, AM, Medusa (over 10 picks due to # of qualifier games)
- Summit: Gyro, Jugg, Sven
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Terrorblade, Arc Warden (over 10 games played)
TI8 pick: Medusa
Alternatives: AM, Medusa, PL (probably picked too many times to win an average category, but he’s up there), Also my dark horse is Sven!
Well SF got it as the hero who only played 6 games. More traditional heroes like Terrorblade and Medusa were 2 and 3 and AM was only played in one game.
TI9 pick: AM
Alternatives: Arc Warden, Sven, Naga
If you think AM gets picked 5 times you have to pick him or maybe Arc Warden. I think he will get picked so I’m taking him here. Sven is another hard farmer, but I think he’s been nerfed enough.
Hero with highest XPM (5 game minimum)
Past Results
- 2018 – Timbersaw
- 2017 – Brood
- 2016 – AM
- Epicenter: TA, Sven, Medusa (AM, Brood, Meepo and Arc warden all high but <5 games)
- TI qualifiers (at least 10 games played): AM, Sven, TA
- Summit: Slark, Sven, Morph
- 7.19-7.22 Majors: AM, Medusa, TA (over 10 games played)
TI8 pick: Medusa
Alternatives: Meepo, AM, Brood
Meepo was #1 but not enough games played. AM was 3rd with only 1 game and Medusa and Brood were 4th and 5th. So clearly we’re in the right neighborhood.
TI9 pick: AM
Alternatives: TA, Meepo
I gotta go with AM. I think we have 5 AM games and we won’t get 5 Meepo games. Meanwhile TA has been nerfed repeatedly.
Hero with most kills in a game
Past Results
- 2018 – Tiny
- 2017 – QOP
- 2016 – Invoker/Mirana
- Epicenter top 10 individual kill games: Morph 2, Sven 2, Ursa, QoP, Ember, AM Jugg, Naix
- 7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual kill games: Morph 4, PA 2, Jugg 2, Meepo 2, Mirana, Terrorblade, Storm, Timber, Ursa, Gyro, QoP, Axe, Naix, MK
TI8 picks: Storm
Alternatives: Ember, Mirana
Mirana was in the top 5, but Ember and Storm really underwhelmed.
TI9 picks: QOP
Alternatives: Morph, Jugg
Morph has been the carry of the DPC season imo, but I think the nerfs have hit the hero enough. I’m actually leaning towards QoP right now and I have no idea why, but this is a shot in the dark. Jugg is not necessarily a kill machine, but again he’s going to get a fair number of games.
Hero with most last hits in a game
Past Results
- 2018 – Tinker
- 2017 – AM
- 2016 – AM
- Epicenter top 10 individual CS games: Lesh, Jugg, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, TA, Ember, Jug, Gyro, Naga
- 7.19-7.22 Majors top 20 individual CS games: Terrorblade 5, AM 2, Jugg 2, Lesh, Medusa, Lone Druid, Arc Warden, WK, Naix, Storm, Spectre, TA, Meepo, Ember
TI8 pick: Medusa
Alternatives: AM, Ember, TA
Medusa and AM didn’t get played enough to really have a shot at the top possibilities. Tinker was barely played, but all it takes is one game.
TI9 pick: AM
Alternatives: Jugg, Medusa, Ember
Look I just don’t trust Terrorblade to get played very much at TI9. So even though he’s got 3 out of the top 4 this year I don’t buy him as a good option. AM is the easy pick, but if you want more games, Jugg is a strong option as well.
Team Predictions
Winner of TI
TI8 pick: Liquid
Alternatives: VP, LGD
My 3 picks finished 4th, 5th and 2nd. Not that they were particularly creative picks. OG won and if you picked OG you’re either a witch, brilliant, or lucky. TI favorites don’t always win, but they almost always finish in the top 8 so go with one of them I guess.
TI9 pick: VG
Alternatives: Secret, VP, Liquid, LGD
Did I just list 5 of the top 6 teams and say pick one of them? I did. Inspired analysis though right? Here’s why I picked VG. While they were not the most consistent team this season, I believe their peaks were higher than even Secret’s this year.
Team with most kills in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: Liquid/VP
- 2017: VP
- 2016: EG
- 7.19-7.22 Top 25 single game kill scores at DPC event: VP 4, Secret 3, Liquid 3, TNC 2, EG 2, Mineski, Beastcoast, OG, Alliance, Complexity, Forward, Gambit, Chaos, RNG, VG, LGD 1
- Epicenter top single kill games: Secret, RNG, VP
- Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG
TI8 pick: VP
Alternatives: VG, LGD, Winstrike
Well I got this one right. Sweet. They did tie with Liquid though so more people got this right.
TI9 pick: VP
Alternatives: VG, LGD, TNC
I’m going with VP again because their games have tended to be longer on average. Same goes for TNC. Vici Gaming has the highest average kills/game, but they also tend to have shorter games and may not have the same long crazy game upside. TNC is the darkhorse, but I trust VP to play more games than TNC.
Team with highest kill average
Prior Results
- 2018: EG
- 2017: LGD.FY
- 2016: OG
- Epicenter: TNC, LGD, VP
- Average kills/game in majors since 7.19: LGD, VG, EG
TI8 pick: VP
Alternatives: LGD, Winstrike
LGD was number 2. Exactly .75 kills/game below EG. Vp was 4th. Not a terrible result, especially since the new EG Was so hard to predict last year
TI9 pick:TNC
Alternatives: VP, VG, LGD
Usually I pick what I think to be the safe choice, but I’m going with TNC here. They love long games. They don’t give up. And they had the highest average at Epicenter, so I at least have some evidence to back it up. The downside is that TNC has a lower floor than VP, VG, LGD and if you lose more games you’re likely to have fewer kills.
Team with fewest deaths in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: Fnatic
- 2017: Newbee
- 2016: Escape gaming
- 7.19-7.22 top 25 single game death scores at a major: VG 4, LGD 4, EG 3, NIP 2, Alliance 2, Liquid, Gambit, Ehome, VP, Forward, Mineski, Navi, The Pango, Chaos, Fnatic
- Epicenter top 10 single game death scores: VG 2, VP, Forward, LGD, NIP, Gambit, Fnatic, TNC, Secret
- 7.19-7.22 Fewest average deaths at majors: VG, Secret, LGD
TI8 pick: Secret
Alternatives: VP, Liquid, Mineski
Fnatic had a 1 death game. Secret had a 2 death game. Show me who thought this was going to be Fnatic =(.
TI9 pick: VG
Alternatives: LGD, Liquid
This one to me seems obvious. You want a team that’s going to win a lot of games and is going to win them quickly. Vici Gaming does both of those things and was the only team to average under 20 deaths/game this season. Easy pick. Liquid with w33 is arguably a wildcard here but they were only 5th fewest deaths/game at epicenter. (My cohost Adam Lorton is shocked that I didn’t include Secret here with some sort of pocket strat. What a homer…)
Team with the most Assists in a game
Prior results
- 2018: LGD
- 2017: TNC
- 2016: EG
- 7.19-7.22 top 25 single game assist scores at majors: VP 3, VG 3, Secret 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, TNC 2, Fnatic 2, Alliance, Mineski, OG, J.Storm, NIP, Pain, Complexity, Gambit, Chaos
- 7.19-7.22 Average assists at Majors: TNC, VG, LGD
- Epicenter top 10 games: TNC 2, Alliance, Secret, OG, VP, Gambit, Forward, RNG, LGD
- Epicenter top averages: TNC, VP, VG
TI8 pick: VG
Alternatives: Winstrike, Secret
Well, I didn’t even get close on this one. None of my 3 picks showed up in the top 10 games. Guess this one is noisy, but I was way off.
TI9 pick: TNC
Alternatives: VG, VP
The TNC pick is based on them only going to 3 majors this year and still have 2 of the top 25 highest single assist games with half the games compared to VP and VG. Even though they might have slightly fewer games than VG or VP at TI9, the group stage format somewhat equalizes games played.
Team that wins the Longest Game
Prior results
- 2018: Mineski
- 2017: IG.V
- 2016: Escape
- 7.19-7.22 top 25 longest wins at majors: VP 5, Liquid 3, RNG 2, EG 2, Fnatic 2, TNC 2, Jstorm, Secret, Chaos, alliance, LGD, NIP, Col, Beast, Mineski
- 7.19-7.22 Longest average win length at majors: RNG, TNC, VP
- Epicenter longest average win length: RNG, Secret, TNC
- Epicenter longest 10 wins: VP 3, TNC 2, RNG 2, Alliance, Secret, Liquid
TI8 pick: VG
Alternatives: Newbee, Fnatic, Secret
Newbee won the second longest game at TI8 and they did it against Secret. Fnatic lost the longest game. So 3 out of my 4 picks appeared in the longest 2 games. So I’ll call this one okay. Long games are a crapshoot as to who wins so you want whoever is going to play in them.
TI9 pick: VP
Alternatives: TNC, RNG, Secret
VP play long games and they win long games. They also are likely to win more games than RNG for example. Again this is a category with a lot of noise so don’t invest too much into the nuances.
Team that wins the shortest game
Prior results
- 2018: OG
- 2017: EG
- 2016: Navi
- 7.19-7.22 top 25 shortest wins at majors: VG 5, Secret 3, TNC 2, Ehome 2, LGD 2, EG 2, Liquid 2, Chaos 2, Mineski, Alliance, OG, Fnatic, VP
- 7.19-7.22 shortest average win length: Navi, Chaos, Keen, Infamous, Secret, VG
- Epicenter average shortest win length: EG, LGD, VG
- Epicenter shortest 10 wins: Liquid 2, LGD, TNC, VG, Gambit, EG, Fnatic, VP, NIP
TI8 pick: Liquid
Alternatives: VP
VP won the 5th shortest game and Liquid won the 6th so it wasn’t totally crazy, but this was pretty far off.
TI9 pick: VG
Alternatives: Liquid, Secret, LGD
You want a team that will win quickly and will win a lot. That seems like VG to me, but there are a lot of options for this one. Liquid especially is tempting. Especially since they were the only team to get 2 of the shortest wins at epicenter. But ultimately, VG has been doing this for too long and too consistently for me not to pick them.
Team with highest game length Average
Prior Results
- 2018: TNC
- 2017: Empire
- 2016: Secret
- 7.19-7.22 Longest game average at majors: TNC, RNG, NIP
- Epicenter longest gave average: TNC, Secret, RNG
TI8 pick: VG
Alternatives: EG, Fnatic, Newbee
VG was a horrible choice here. They finished 15th in average game length out of 18 teams. Newbee and Fnatic were a lot closer (2nd and 3rd) but man VG was a real mistake.
TI9 pick: TNC
Alternatives, RNG, NIP, Secret
I feel really conflicted on this one. TNC’s average game length this year is only 3 seconds longer than RNGs. No teams at TI have really few games (16 game minimum) so I can’t pick the team that might just get 2-3 lucky long games. Ultimately, I basically flipped a coin between TNC and RNG.
Team with most different heroes picked
Prior Results
- 2018: Secret
- 2017: Newbee
- 2016: Wings
- Epicenter: Liquid 50 (21 games), VP 47(18), LGD 41 (16), NIP 40 (11)
- MDL Disneyland: NIP 47 (16 games), Liquid 45 (21), LGD 43 (19), EG 39 (13)
- Dreamleague: VP 55 (28 games), Fnatic 52 (18), Secret 40 (16), Mineski 36 (13)
- Chongqing: Secret 51 (20 games), EG 38 (20), VP 38 (17), LGD 34 (13)
- Kuala Lumpur: VP 40 (20 games), NIP 38 (16), EG 37 (20), TNC 36 (13)
TI8 pick: Optic
Alternatives: VG, VP
Well Optic finished 3rd with 52 unique heroes in 24 games compared to secret with 58 in 26 games. So could be worse.
TI9 pick: Secret
Alternatives: NIP, VP, LGD, Liquid
Hmmmm. If Optic hadn’t failed last year, I’d be sorely tempted to pick NIP. VP have been the most consistently at the top, but ultimately I’m going to go with Secret. I have a feeling that Puppey will be trying plenty of heroes during the group stage and saving some strats for the knockouts.
Team with fewest different heroes picked
Prior Results
- 2018: TNC
- 2017: Newbee
- 2016: Wings
- Epicenter: Infamous 22, Pain 23, EG 27
- MDL Disneyland: Empire 19, Beastcoast 20, Fnatic 25
- Dreamleague: Navi 22, Forward 25, Liquid 27
- Chongqing: Aster 18, JStorm 22, Alliance 23
- Kuala Lumpur: Gambit 22, Pain X 24, Aster 28
TI8 pick: Pain
Alternatives: IG, Mineski, OG
Ewww. Pain picked a good 9 more heroes than TNC did last year. Not even close on this one. I think the lesson is that with TI the weakest few teams still get a minimum of 16 games whereas at a major you might only get 5.
TI9 pick: Keen
Alternatives: Infamous, Alliance, Mineski, Chaos
Since all the teams are playing 16 games I decided to run the data again and picked the team with the fewest heroes played when they played over 10 games at each major and got: Alliance, VG, Keen, VG, OG. I decided to go with Keen. VG is a legitimate option as well, but I still expect them to play a lot of bracket games so I’m leaning Keen. OG’s fewest at epicenter was when playing with their coach which I think eliminates them. Chaos is a dark horse that I have not enough info to rate.
Players Predictions
Player with the highest kill average
Prior results
- 2018: Miracle
- 2017: Kuku
- 2016: Miracle
- Epicenter: Ana, Somnus, Gabbi, Paparazi
- 7.19-7.22 average kills in majors: Paparazi, Gabbi, Miracle, Ana, Somnus
TI8 pick: Somnus
Alternatives: Ramzes, Iceberg
Somnus was #3 in kills/game. Ramzes was #5. So not terrible, but it does seem foolish to not trust in Miracle.
TI9 pick: Paparazi
Alternatives: Miracle, Ana, Gabbi
Ana to me is the high upside, but also most downside of these players. Miracle is the legacy choice, but I think Paparazi is the choice from this year. Miracle not being in the top 4 for kills at Epicenter despite his team’s performance is what makes the call for me.
Player with most kills in a game
Prior results
- 2018: Sumail
- 2017: Kuku
- 2016: w33/Sumail
- Epicenter top 18 kill games: Ana 3, Miracle 2, Monet 2, Paparazi, Yawar, Afoninje, Midone, Kuku, Micke, Nisha, Armel, Gabbi, Fata, Ramzes
- 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Ramzes 3, Ace 2, Moo 2, Midone 2, Paparazi 2, RTZ, Afoninje, Ame, Shadow, Ahjit, Yawar, Ana, Miracle, Sumail
TI 8 pick: Somnus
Alternatives: Paparazi, Armel, Iceberg, Moon
Sumail had 31 kills in a game. The next highest was 24. He didn’t have another entry in the top 20. This is the perfect example of an outlier! Somnus tied for 3rd with 22 kills.
TI 9 pick: Ramzes
Alternatives: Paparazi, Miracle, Ana, Armel, Gabbi
Paparazi seems like an obvious choice, but I’m going to steer clear of him because I think VG won’t have the super long outlier game. Instead I’m thinking VP or TNC and I’m going to go with Ramzes. You should also see that unlike past years, safe-laners seem to be having more kills than mids this year. So I would definitely lean that way.
Player with the lowest death average
Prior results
- 2018: Resolution
- 2017: Ame
- 2016:Qojqva
- Epicenter: Daxak, Paparazi, Ori, Ramzes
- 7.19-7.22 lowest average deaths at majors: Nisha, Ame, Paparazi, RTZ, Ramzes
TI8 pick: Raven
Alternatives: Ramzes, Reso
Raven finished 2nd and Reso was #1. I didn’t get it right, but I was damn close. This seems like a fairly stable and predictive category.
TI9 pick: Paparazi
Alternatives: Nisha, Ame
This has to be a hard carry. But between the top 4-5 it’s a bit of a crap shoot. I’m going with Paparazi because I think VG will do the best and have shorter games, but I don’t feel strongly about it versus the other options.
Player with the highest assist average
Prior results
- 2018: Cr1t
- 2017: Ah fu
- 2016: Zai
- Epicenter: Tims, Eyyou, Fade, Puppey, Solo, Dy
- 7.19-7.22 average assists at majors: Eyyou, Fade, Tims, Dy, Kuku, fly, cr1t, fy
TI8 pick: Lanm
Alternatives: Nofear, AlwaysWannaFly, fy
This was bad. Really bad. Lanm wasn’t even in the top 25. Fy was 5th and that was the closest I got. Ultimately you know who did well? The supports from the top teams (Cr1t, GH, Solo, Fly, Fy, Puppey) were the top 6.
TI9 pick: Fade
Alternatives: Eyyou, Tims, Puppey, Solo
Okay so the choice is to go with TNC and their long games or VG and their consistent winning games. For average I’m going with Fade. I feel slightly more confident in VG than in TNC to do well and Fade/DY have been absolute monsters. Cr1t is who I might have gone with prior to doing research and I can’t fault you. The man has been a beast this year. He might have the most impactful assists, but this year he hasn’t been getting the most.
Player with most assists in a game
Prior results
- 2018: Fy
- 2017: Super
- 2016: General
- Epicenter top 20 individual assist games: This is a shitshow. Not a single player has more than one appearance on this list…
- 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual kill games: Zai 2, Dy 2, Yapzor 2, Solo, Puppey, 9pasha, Nisha, Fly, Saksa, Cr1t, S4, Forev, 1437, Afterlife, Ceb, Ppd, Yang
TI8: NoFear
Alternatives: Fenrir/Lanm,
Okay, so players from poorly performing teams did not show up on the most assists list. Instead its fy, Jerax, Solo, cr1t and fly were at the top last year. Lesson is pick a winning team.
TI9: Dy
Alternatives: Zai, Yapzor, Fade, FY
I don’t have a great answer for this one. But if we’re talking supports on teams I think will do well, we’re talking VG, Secret, Liquid, VP and LGD.
Player with highest last hit average
Prior Results
- 2018: Sccc and Moon
- 2017:Reso
- 2016:IceIceIce
- Epicenter: Nisha, Monet, Micke, Ramzes, Armel, Gabbi
- 7.19-7.22 top average CS at majors: Gabbi, Ace, RTZ, Ramzes
TI8 picks: Resolution
Alternatives: Ramzes
Reso was #4 so not too bad. I think he got into trouble when VGJ Storm got off to such a good start. They won a lot of fast games using a 3 core lineup and not the Reso farm model.
TI9 picks: Ramzes
Alternatives: Nisha, Gabbi, RTZ
I don’t feel good about picking Ramzes, but he’s been a good farmer. His team is likely to win a fair number of games. Gabbi and Nisha also fit that mold. I think Secret’s average game length might be too short though.
Player with most last hits in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: Moonn
- 2017: Reso
- 2016: Miracle-
- Epicenter top 20 individual Last hit games: Ramzes 3, Monet 2, Midone 2, Micke 2, Ceb 2, Ace, Gabbi, Nisha, Ace, Ori, Miracle, qojqva, NoOne, Setsu
- 7.19-7.22 top 20 CS games at majors: Razmes 2, Monet 2, Gabbi 2, Moo, Nisha, RTZ, Sylar, Abed, Midone
TI8 pick: Resolution
Alternatives: SCCC, Ramzes
I felt good about that top 3, but let me tell you it wasn’t close. SCCC was the only one of the 3 to crack the top 10 at #6. This is a crap shoot for sure, but I sort of expected to do at least a little bit better than 1 out of the top 10.
TI9 pick: Monet
Alternatives: Razmes, Gabbi, Nisha
I’m taking a gamble here and going with Monet. RNG didn’t get that many games at either Epicenter or the whole season and yet he’s near the top. They love long game and chinese carries get a lot of time to farm. But ultimately, this is gonna be who plays the really long AM or Naga or Arc Warden game.
Player with most GPM in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: XXS
- 2017: Ana
- 2016: w33
- Epicenter top 20 GPM games as alchemist: Somnus, Armel,Sumail, Noone
- 7.19-7.22 top 20 individual GPM games as alchemist: Sumail 2, Somnus, Armel, Timado, Ace Noone
TI8 picks: Sumail
Alternatives: Paparazi, SCCC, Miracle, Ame
So XXS got it last year because guess what? he played Alchemist the most. Lesson here is it doesn’t matter how good or bad your team is if you play Alch enough times. Sumail btw had the 4th, 6th and 7th best gpm games. Not surprisingly those were on alchemist.
TI9 picks: Sumail
Alternative: Somnus
I mean forget who has a 900 GPM game as Arc warden. I think there’s going to be Alchs picked. Therefore that’s all that matters.
Player with highest GPM avg
Prior Results
- 2018: Miracle
- 2017: Ana
- 2016: IceIceIce
- Epicenter: Armel, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha, Monet, Ame, Miracle
- MDL Disneyland: Ace, Miracle, RTZ, Ramzes Ame, Nisha
- Dreamleague: Ame, Nisha, Paparazi, Ramzes, Ace
- Chongqing: Ame, RTZ, Ramzes, Paparazi, Nisha
- Kuala Lumpur: RTZ, Nisha, Ramzes, Gabbi, Abed
- 7.19-7.22: RTZ, Ame, Nisha, Ramzes, Miracle, Monet
TI8 pick: Resolution
Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle
Reso finished 5th. Not too bad and Miracle obviously won. The top 6 were half Alch players and half position 1s. So take that into consideration
TI9 pick: Ame
Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle, Nisha, RTZ
This is a tough one. On the one hand you want the team that wins. But you also want the team that has longer games. LGD doesn’t have games that are that long, but Ame has been at/near the top all season. I think Ramzes is my second choice and I could still see myself changing to him.
Player that plays the Most different heroes
Prior Results
- 2018: Midone
- 2017: Miracle-
- 2016: Faith_bian, Iceice, Miracle-
- Epicenter: NoOne, Mind Control, Tie (Miracle, Ace, Ame, Kuro)
- MDL Disneyland: PPD, Ame, Ace, Mind Control
- Dreamleague: Ramzes, Solo, Tie (Jabz, Noone)
- Chongqing: Zai, MidOne, Nisha
- Kuala Lumpur: Fata, Tie (Rodjer, Solo, Zai, Cr1t, Midone, Sumail)
- 7.19-7.22 Major totals: Zai, NoOne Tie (Solo, Chalice, Midone, Fata)
TI8 picks: Ramzes
Alternative: Miracle
Ramzes was pretty far off here, but Miracle was tied for #2.
TI9 picks: Zai
Alternatives: Midone, Miracle, Ame
Another crap shoot, but ideally you want to pick a player who plays multiple positions. Miracle is a likely candidate for this in the past, but I think it’s likely he’ll play almost entirely safelane so that decreases my desire to pick Miracle. MidOne is still a strong option, but I’m going with Zai because he does play a sort of position 3 and 4 hybrid and has heroes from both.
Tournament Predictions
Number of games played at the Main event
Prior Results
- 2018: 47/60
- 2017: 47/60
- 2016: 47/60
- Epicenter: 49/60
- MDL Disneyland: 51/60
- Dreamleague: 52/60
- Chongqing: 46/60
- Kuala Lumpur: 49/60
TI8 pick: 45-49
Alternative: 50-54
EZ.
TI9 pick: 45-49
Alternative: 50-54
I mean all 3 previous TIs and 3/5 majors are in 45-49 so that seems like the easy choice. However, this year I think it’s closer to 50-54 than it has been before. Still I’m sticking with 45-49.
Total number of heroes picked
Prior Results
- 2018: 107
- 2017: 107
- 2016: 105
- Epicenter: 105
- MDL: 97
- Dreamleague: 96
- Chongqing: 88
- Kuala lumpur: 95
TI8 pick: 101+
Alternative: 91-100
EZ
TI9 pick: 101+
Alternative: 91-100
For whatever reason (probably longer group stage), TI usually has more heroes picked than your average major. So that probably means 101+ especially since Epicenter was over 100. But 4/5 majors did drop below 100 so I can justify 91-100, just historically it still seems like over 100 is the right call.
Total number of heroes banned
Prior Results
- 2018: 91
- 2017: 97
- 2016: 82
- Epicenter: 91
- MDL Disneyland: 85
- Dreamleague: 86
- Chongqing: 76
- Kuala Lumpur: 76
TI8 pick: 81-90
Alternative: 91-100
I ended up being 1 off on this one. I don’t feel too bad about it.
TI9 pick: 91-100
Alternative: 81-90.
Nearly a coin flip. But I’m going to go high this year. TI has more teams and more games. Epicenter is also the best guess for a TI meta.
Most combined total kills in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: 108
- 2017: 101-110
- 2016: 117
- Epicenter: 102
- MDL Disneyland: 92
- Dreamleague: 79
TI8 pick: 101-110
Alternatives: 111-120, 91-100
Nailed it.
TI9 pick: 101-110
Alternatives: 91-100
Okay, so this one is really random. I didn’t nail it so much as get lucky last year. At this point I guess I should go with the Epicenter record since that’s the most like TI. But do what you want.
Longest game of the tournament
Prior Results
- 2018: 81:52
- 2017: 100+
- 2016: 76:57
- Epicenter: 76:08, 68:12, 67:54
- MDL Disneyland: 62:24, 62:05, 61:48
- Dreamleague: 72:29, 62:12, 60:05
TI8 pick: 80-89:59
Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59, 100+
Ended up getting this one right, But not by much.
TI9 pick: 80-89:59
Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59
Epicenter games were longer than MDL and Dreamleague so I think going under 70 is a real mistake. In this case you’re just predicting an outlier and it’s TI so I’m going a bit long.
Shortest game of the tournament
Prior Results
- 2018: 16:59
- 2017: 15-20
- 2016: 15:28
- Epicenter: 18:08, 20:10, 22:27
- MDL Disneyland: 19:18, 22:14, 22:23
- Dreamleague: 17:28, 20:52, 21:33
TI8 pick: 15-19:59
Alternative: 20-24:59
This one was an easy pick and it worked out.
TI9 pick:15-19:59
Alternative: 20-24:59
I’ll say exactly what I said last year because it was exactly right. I think 15-19:59 is the smartest choice, but the fact that so many of the majors barely had short games is a bit concerning. However, the group stage at TI is so long that I think some teams will gg out early in a game to prevent fatigue. Most of those other majors did not have as long a group stage.
Most kills by a hero in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: 31
- 2017: 23-25
- 2016: 23
- Epicenter: 22, 21, 20
- MDL Disneyland: 23, 21, 20
- Dreamleague: 20, 20, 20
TI8 pick: 26+
Alternative: 23-25
I got this one, but I don’t feel great about it. Sumail’s 31 kills was the only game that happened in 26+, but I’ll take it.
TI9 pick: 23-25
Alternative: 26+
I’m going low this year. Not a single game topped 23 in the last 3 majors. And only 1 game at TI has been 26+ in the past 3 TIs. So 23-25 I go.
Most deaths by a hero in a game
Prior results
- 2018: 18
- 2017: 20
- 2016: 17
- Epicenter: 17, 17, 14
- MDL Disneyland: 18, 15, 15
- Dreamleague: 16, 13, 13
TI8 pick: 18-20
Alternative: 15-17
It was close to a tossup.
TI9 pick: 18-20
Alternative: 15-17
It’s still close to a tossup. Just remember that TI has more games than a major so there’s more chances to get an outlier.
Most assists by a hero in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: 35 (EDIT: My source was wrong on this one (I had 45 here). It was 35 by FY.
- 2017: 36+
- 2016: 36
- Epicenter: 39, 37, 35
- MDL Disneyland: 34, 34, 31
- Dreamleague: 37, 34, 31
TI8: 36+
EDIT: This one was actually wrong. It was 35 last year. Darn! But It’s always going to be right in that 34+ area and I’d do 36+ again if I had to.
TI9 pick: 36+
Oh wait I do get to do it again =). Only MDL Disneyland would have denied us this year and I’m willing to take that risk especially since TI will have nearly twice the games that a major has.
Most GPM by a hero in a game
Prior Results
- 2018: 1000+
- 2017: 1000+
- 2016: 1090
- Epicenter: 1104, 1101, 1064
- MDL Disneyland: 988, 957, 937
- Dreamleague: 1094, 1021, 965
TI8 pick: 1000+
Alternative: 900-999
There was an Alch. I got it right.
TI9 pick: 1000+
Alternative: 900-999
I predict there will be an Alch
Closing Thoughts
If you got this far, congratulations! I hope you enjoyed the read. A few quick notes before you go:
- Remember to lock in your predictions early. You can always change them later, but imagine waiting too long and not getting those precious battle points!
- Sometimes I tweet. Sometimes my tweets are interesting. You can follow me on Twitter @OmegamanDota
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Thanks for reading. Good luck in your predictions!
And last of all, go VP!!!!
